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Peak Oil News Wednesday August 9th 2006
It's a small group: three members of the Unitarian church we're gathered in, an engineer from Mexico, a smattering of activists, and a Pacifica Radio reporter. The meeting opens - the second of the just-hatched Houston Climate Protection Alliance - by talking about what each at the table has done to cut down on their fossil-fuel use.
Fears of the world reaching "peak oil" supply and facing a crisis that results as demand continues to grow in the developing world are overblown, and the supply of oil may increase 25 percent by 2015, a worldwide energy consulting firm said Tuesday. Cambridge Energy Research Associates of Cambridge, Mass., concluded that world crude-oil production could rise from the current 88 million barrels per day to 110 million barrels in nine years.
Global oil capacity can rise faster than demand for the next decade and beyond according to a fresh study of world oil fields that works to puncture views that higher prices are imminent as supplies near a peak.
Jeremy Rifkin’s 2002 book, The Hydrogen Economy, trumpets the prospect of an energy future in which clean, renewable energy could be stored by companies — and even individuals — in the form of hydrogen. A well-known social critic and author, Rifkin is a lecturer at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and a consultant to major companies.
In the category of worrisome developments - probably sometime between avian flu and an asteroid striking the planet - will be the energy turning point futurists are calling "peak oil." That is when the world's oil production hits its highest point - when the bell curve of supply tops out for good, and then keeps dropping until there is no more.
Two years ago in May of 2002, a group of international petroleum specialists met at Uppsala University in Sweden for a two-day conference to discuss the world's oil supplies. The result was a consensus that global supplies of crude oil will peak as early as 2010 (or earlier) and then start to decline, ushering in an era of soaring energy prices and economic upheaval.
Oil futures were sent sharply higher this week after a surprise announcement from British Petroleum that the company would be shutting down the Prudhoe Bay oil field, the nation’s largest, due to the discovery of a severely corroded pipeline. The loss of Prudhoe Bay, which accounts for 7% of total U.S. output, will cut world oil production by 400,000 barrels per day and could last as long as three months, due to the extent of the pipeline problem.
Gold futures closed higher Wednesday, as higher oil prices, a lower dollar and Israel's decision to expand its offensive further into Lebanon boosted demand for the metal as a safe-haven instrument and inflation hedge. Gold for December delivery closed up $4.70 at $662 an ounce, after earlier touching a high of $666.50, its loftiest level in a week.
Peter Lloyd is preparing for a ghastly future. The world he foresees is one in which it will cost $700 or $1000 to fill the family car - if petrol is available for private use. It will be a world in which the scarcity and expense of oil, widespread pollution, environmental ruin and climate change will bring down modern civilisation in terrible anarchy as countries go to war over oil, fresh water or arable land; as ordinary people try to adjust to living primitive lives without the medicines and technology that support their lives in the 21st century.
Links between crude oil and sugar prices have broken down due to high stocks of cane-derived biofuel, and may not be restored any time soon, analysts and traders said on Wednesday. Oil prices are trading just off record highs, boosted by geopolitical turmoil and supply worries, while raw sugar prices have sunk to their lowest since January.
The period since King Abdullah's accession to the position of Custodian of the Two Holy Places has been one of significant change. Overall, the changes have occurred amidst a little appreciated background of considerable constancy whether one is focusing on the domestic environment within the kingdom or on the country’s role in regional and world affairs.
Oil prices climbed above $77 a barrel on Wednesday after a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. fuel stocks, deepening supply concerns as the world's biggest consumer copes with a cut in crude output from Alaska.
ConocoPhillips and Anadarko Petroleum Corporation announced the successful startup of the first Alpine satellite oil field on Alaska's North Slope. The Fiord field is expected to have peak production of around 22,500 barrels of oil per day (BPD) in 2008.
Heat waves, hurricanes, forest fires, floods, droughts, air pollution alerts, high energy prices, electrical service disruptions, species loss, intense global competition for energy supplies and energy wars are all sending a loud, clear message: It is time for an energy transformation.
The global economy is in endless decline, cars become luxury items for the rich, suburbanites live in isolation from food and goods, agriculture withers, international trade halts, air conditioning ends and extreme political movements emerge to fight to preserve the last resources. People will be forced to gather in small, self-sustaining and defensive communities to survive.
When worldwide oil depletion sets in, initial concern will be with transportation. First attention will be fixated on the “unbelievable” gas prices, then, what to do with the SUVs, miles per gallon, public transit, bicycles, telecommuting, and anything else having to do with getting ourselves and our stuff around.
The Peak Oil/Global Warming Channel spoke this morning with Mr. Armstrong about the Portland Peak Oil Task Force and related issues regarding the transition to a post-peak oil world. You can listen to that conversation by clicking on the appropriate button in the program menu in the Peak Oil/Global Warming Channel Brightcove Player.
With the recent problems in the oil market, renewed attention has been focused on the theories of M. King Hubbert and a new generation of oil supply modelers, who believe that geological resources are scarce and a peak in global oil production is near. In fact, these analysts – usually geologists – are unfamiliar with statistical modeling and don’t recognize that they are engaged in curve fitting, not scientific analysis. The repeated failures of their predictions and their refusal to address substantive criticisms of their theories and methods are damning indictments of their claim to be scientific.
Oil prices eked out a modest gain Wednesday after a government report showed gasoline supplies plunged last week. Inventory fears have recently gripped the energy markets once again, aided by the planned shutdown of BP's (BP - commentary - Cramer's Take) Prudhoe Bay oil field in Alaska to fix a corroded pipeline and leak.
Higher oil prices helped send the Toronto stock market higher Wednesday as the fallout from the coming shutdown of Alaska's Prudhoe Bay oilfield continued to dominate the energy markets. But investors appear to have read, absorbed and moved on from Tuesday's decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to leave interest rates where they are for the time being.
Last summer, a new gasoline station opened in South Elgin, Ill., an old farming village on the Fox River that's being swallowed by the westward sprawl of Chicago. As service stations go, it's an alpha establishment. A $3 million Marathon outlet with 24 digital pumps, a computerized car wash, a Goodfella's sandwich shop and a convenience store lit up like an operating room, it sells everything from ultra-low-sulfur diesel to an herbal "memory enhancer" to Krispy Kreme doughnuts. Infrared sensors activate the faucets in its immaculate, white-tiled bathrooms. The coffee kiosk's floor is real hardwood.
At the fifth annual conference of ASPO (the Association for the Study of Peak Oil), held in July in Pisa, Italy, there were many excellent presentations, one of which I will report on at some length below. But the timing of the conference proved ominous. During two weeks of travel in Italy I had only occasional access to the Internet or to other news sources, and heard only sporadic reports on the unfolding crisis in Israel, Gaza, and Lebanon. Back home, I quickly caught up on the events.